BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

A US trade court ruling on May 28, 2025 has vacated President Trump’s global tariff orders, meaning the newly announced 10% duty on Scotch whisky and other imports will not take effect. U.S. importers—who had been scrambling to account for the proposed levy—now know Scotch will enter the country duty-free. In practical terms, the 10% surcharge that hit Scotch imports in April/May is gone. For example, The Whiskey Lab’s Spring 2025 Scotch shipment (scheduled to arrive June) will not incur the extra 10% tariff. In short, Scotch prices in the US should remain at pre-announcement levels for now, relieving importers and protecting consumers from sudden price spikes. 

Recent Tariff News and Pricing Uncertainty (Past 6 Months)

In late 2024 and early 2025, global trade policy shifts created major uncertainty for Scotch pricing. In February 2025 the Trump administration announced 25% duties on Canadian and Mexican goods and a broad 10% on Chinese imports, raising fears that reciprocal measures on luxury imports (including whisky) might follow. On April 2, 2025 (“Liberation Day”), the president unveiled sweeping tariffs: a baseline 10% on UK and other countries’ goods, 20% on EU exports, and 24% on Japanese imports. Crucially, Scotch whisky (exported from the UK) was hit with a 10% levy. Trade bodies immediately voiced alarm. The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) said it was “disappointed that Scotch Whisky could be impacted by these tariffs” and urged quick resolution[1]. Kilchoman distillery owner Anthony Wills (Islay) called the news “a huge blow for the industry,” noting the US market accounts for about 10% of his sales[2]. He and others said they would try to absorb the cost rather than raise shelf prices: “We will be doing what we did last time, and trying to keep the shelf price as it was before,” he said.

In April-May, U.S. whisky importers and distributors faced a scramble. Analysts warned that Scotch prices could jump $5–$20 per bottle on popular mid-range brands as tariffs took hold[3]. Some wholesalers even accelerated orders: Diageo reported that U.S. customers “stocked up before anticipated tariffs,” boosting short-term volumes[4]. Across the industry, companies shifted strategy. For example, Japan’s Suntory moved to “produce and try to sell locally” to avoid U.S. duties[5]. US spirits groups urged diplomacy: the Distilled Spirits Council wrote that we must get “back to fair and reciprocal zero-for-zero tariffs” for whiskey[6]. Throughout April the baseline 10% remained in limbo. On April 9 the White House paused most country-specific tariffs (except on China) after market turmoil, but confirmed that the 10% baseline on imports like Scotch would stand. A tentative UK–US trade announcement on May 9 left the 10% UK tariff intact. These developments kept Scotch importers on edge – every shipment order and price quote hung on whether a 10% tax would finally apply.

Historical Overview (2005–2020s Scotch Pricing)

Over the past 15 years, U.S. Scotch pricing remained largely stable until recent trade disruptions. From 2005 to 2018, imported Scotch whisky was subject to the standard U.S. federal excise tax of $13.50 per proof gallon, along with widely varying state and local sales taxes. Since there was no U.S. VAT or flat national sales tax, consumer prices rose mainly with inflation, currency exchange fluctuations, and growing market demand. The major pricing disruption began in 2019, when President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on single-malt Scotch (along with other EU spirits) in the Airbus-Boeing subsidy dispute. This sudden tax sent U.S. shelf prices sharply higher. Distillers and importers largely split the cost with U.S. partners to avoid losing customers. The Scotch Whisky Association later estimated that the tariffs caused a 30% collapse in US exports by value, about £600 million lost in 18 months[7].

In January 2021 the Biden administration lifted the punitive 25% duty after an EU–US trade accord. This 5-year suspension (to mid-2026) undercut the worst of the tariff effect. Since 2021, absent new taxes, Scotch exports to the U.S. recovered. U.S. volumes and values of Scotch shipments climbed back toward pre-tariff levels (SWA reports show US exports holding steady with slight growth in 2024). Inflation and a strong US dollar have driven moderate price increases on Scotch, but nothing like the abrupt hikes of the tariff era. In short, the 2019–2021 tariffs were the largest price shock in the past 15 years; without them, Scotch pricing progressed smoothly, growing with demand and normal cost factors.

Long-Term Effects of Tariffs on Scotch Pricing (by Market)

Tariffs alter relative prices and trade patterns. The long-term impact of a 10% US duty on Scotch (if it had remained) would vary by country:

• United States: A permanent 10% duty directly raises US import costs. Over time, importers would either have to absorb costs or pass them to retailers. Market analysts predicted typical Scotch brands could see $5–$20 higher per bottle in retail price due to this tariff layer. This would narrow the price gap between Scotch and cheaper domestic whiskies, potentially slowing Scotch growth. Now that the tariff is blocked, that upward pressure is removed. In fact, the US may see relatively lower Scotch prices versus what they would have been. Removing the 10% levy also reduces legal and supply-chain uncertainty, which should support volume growth and price stability in the long run.
• United Kingdom: The UK government had already dropped its own 25% punitive tariff on American whiskey (effective June 2022) as part of a trade agreement. As a result, the UK imports US spirits tariff-free, and US tariffs on Scotch do not feed back to UK domestic prices. In other words, British whisky prices and sales are not directly affected by US tariff policy. What matters for UK distillers is exchange rates and other costs; they benefit now from access to the US market without added duties. In the broader sense, settling the tariff issue by mutual negotiation (as the court case encourages) would give UK exporters long-term certainty about selling Scotch in the US without tax penalties.
• European Union: Likewise, EU producers were not hit by the 10% US duty on Scotch, since Scotch is not an EU export (the EU sells Irish whiskey and Cognac). The EU had considered retaliating on US whiskey but ultimately kept a “zero-for-zero” stance on drinks. If the US tariff had stayed in place, the EU might have been pressured to impose new tariffs on American spirits or in broader negotiations. With the US levy struck down, the transatlantic spirits trade remains at status quo: most EU and UK whiskies can enter the US under normal WTO rates, and the US continues to receive tariff-free alcohol from Europe. In practice, this means no long-term price change for Scotch in EU markets due to the US ruling (apart from currency and local taxes).
• Japan: Japanese whisky exporters faced a potentially larger hit: Trump’s plan had included a 24% US tariff on Japanese spirits vs. 10% on Scotch. Industry observers noted Scotch would have been relatively advantaged by the smaller tariff while Irish and Japanese whiskies took the bigger brunt. In the US retail market, a high duty on Japanese whisky would have made Scotch more price-competitive. Now, with the tariffs blocked, Japanese and Irish whiskeys remain on a level playing field with Scotch (all subject only to the standard 10% baseline that has now been rescinded). Thus, Scotch loses that one-sided benefit, but markets are stable. Long-term, Japanese distillers had already been expanding domestic sales and U.S. bottling to mitigate trade risk. The Court’s action means U.S. consumers see no new disadvantage when choosing Scotch versus Japanese whisky based on tariffs.

In summary, removing the tariff removes artificial price distortions: U.S. consumers avoid higher Scotch prices, UK distillers retain full access to the US market, EU spirits trade stays balanced, and Japanese whiskies are not unfairly penalized. The ruling helps restore “zero-for-zero” trade conditions that the spirits industry has historically championed.

Industry Voices and Reactions

Scotch industry leaders and analysts weighed in on the turmoil. The SWA’s official statement in April 2025 encapsulated the sector’s view: “The industry is disappointed that Scotch Whisky could be impacted by these tariffs,” the association said, while praising the UK government’s efforts to find a resolution. Kilchoman’s Anthony Wills highlighted the pain for small distillers: tariffs meant “10% of our sales…a big blow,” but he added that he and other producers plan to “try to keep the shelf price as it was before”. Similarly, Stuart Cassells (former Glenturret and Macallan executive) warned that new distilleries could be “set back two or three years” by tariff-induced costs[8].

On the business side, Diageo (owner of Johnnie Walker and Guinness) offered perspective: in May 2025 the company reported that Trump’s tariffs “could hit its profits by $150m” annually, though it expected to offset about half the impact. An industry analyst noted Diageo would likely use price increases gradually to help cushion the blow. Diageo’s CEO Debra Crew emphasized that current industry headwinds are “largely macroeconomic” with uncertainties in demand, but tariffs added another strain. On the other hand, after the 2019 tariff suspension deal, SWA chief Karen Betts said her members could refocus on rebuilding U.S. sales: “This deal removes the threat of tariffs being re-imposed…enabling distillers to focus on recovering exports to our largest and most valuable export market,” she explained[9].

American spirits groups also spoke up. The Distilled Spirits Council (DISCUS) urged the government to return to reciprocal zero-tariff trade. CEO Chris Swonger wrote: “We urge President Trump to liberate the U.S. spirits sector…by negotiating deals that get us back to fair and reciprocal zero-for-zero tariffs for spirits products”. Such comments reflect a long-term industry goal: that Scotch (and all whiskies) sell on their merits rather than tariff protection.

Timeline of Major Trade Events Impacting Scotch

• Oct 2019: U.S. imposes 25% tariff on single-malt Scotch (EU-bound) under the Boeing–Airbus dispute.
• Jan 2021: After aerospace dispute resolution, U.S. and EU suspend those tariffs for 5 years (Scotch duties lifted). (The UK separately agreed a parallel 5-year pause on its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. whiskey)
• June 2022: In follow-up US–UK trade talks, Britain formally removes its 25% duty on American whiskey. Scotch makers applaud continued market access.
• Apr 2, 2025: President Trump announces “Liberation Day” tariffs: 10% on UK imports (including Scotch), 20% on EU imports, 24% on Japan. The Scotch industry is immediately on alert.
• Apr 9, 2025: White House suspends most of the country-specific tariffs (post market shock), but confirms the 10% blanket tariff stays. Scotch could still face 10%.
• May 9, 2025: Trump and UK PM Starmer unveil a limited trade agreement. It modestly expands auto and ag. Importantly, it leaves in place the 10% tariff on British exports (much to Scotch exporters’ dismay).
• May 28, 2025: The U.S. Court of International Trade (Case No. 25-66) blocks the tariff orders. In its decision, the court says Trump’s orders “exceed any authority” to levy such tariffs. The proposed 10% duty on Scotch (and all other non-exempt imports) is enjoined.
• May 29, 2025: (News outlets report the ruling; the Trump administration announces plans to appeal, keeping legal uncertainty technically open but not affecting current practice.)

What This Means for The Whiskey Lab’s Spring 2025 Import

Thanks to the court’s decision, The Whiskey Lab can proceed with our Spring 2025 Scotch whisky import without the previously feared 10% duty. Our shipment of 15 single-cask Scotch whiskies, arriving in June, will thus reflect true costs only – there is no unexpected tax to pad the price. In practical terms, this protects price integrity for our customers: any price we charge is based solely on producer price, shipping, and normal margins, not on an artificial tariff. Moreover, the tariff relief allows us to expand our selection. With no added duty, we can afford to include a wider variety of casks or even increase volumes, ensuring better value. We are committed to transparent, fair pricing. Whisky Lab’s Spring collection will feature rare and premium bottlings at prices we set in advance, unaffected by trade shocks.

In short, the May 2025 ruling is good news for whisky lovers. It removes an unjustified cost, helps stabilize Scotch prices in the U.S., and lets us deliver our new single-cask lineup as promised. We look forward to unveiling the Spring 2025 Scotch collection – a broad range of high-quality malts, confidently priced, now that tariff uncertainty has passed.

Sources: Authoritative news reports and industry analyses were used throughout (see citations) to trace the tariff saga and its impact on Scotch whisky. All quotes and data are from the cited sources.